DTN Midday Livestock Comments          05/12 11:41

   Livestock Contracts Dip Lower Tuesday

   Bids have been renewed in the cash cattle market, but no new trade has 
developed at this point Tuesday. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It's been a whiplash type of a day already for the cattle contracts and 
traders are now letting the contracts fall lower upon fearing what headline 
could pop up next. Bids have been renewed in the cash market, but no new trade 
has developed. July corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is 
up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 161.19 points and NASDAQ is 
down 446.96 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   It's been a highly political, topsy-turvy Tuesday morning for the cattle 
complex following Monday's mayhem day of trading where it was reported the 
Trump administration was going to roll back tariffs on beef imports from all 
major beef exporting countries. However, then news broke Tuesday morning that 
the administration paused that train of thought and doesn't intend to do so in 
the immediate future. Needless to say, upon hearing the news Tuesday morning 
that tariffs would remain in place, the cattle contracts shot higher, but are 
now entering into Tuesday's noon hour mostly lower after being fatigued from 
the back-and-forth, emotionally charged changes. June live cattle are steady at 
$249.40, August live cattle are down $1.00 at $242.55 and October live cattle 
are down $1.27 at $235.40. A few bids have been renewed in the cash cattle 
market, but no new trade has developed following Monday's light business.

   On Monday, mandatory reports shared some light trade was noted in all major 
feeding states with Northern dressed deals marked at $400, $2 to $3 lower than 
last week's weighted averages. Southern live sales came in at $260, $3 higher 
than last week's weighted averages.

   Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 
2026. Beef production for 2026 was 243 million pounds as slower marketings of 
fed cattle have affected throughput and cull cow slaughter is lighter than 
years past as well. Quarterly steer prices were increased substantially from 
last month as the cash market continues to rally and trade far higher than was 
originally assumed, Steers in the second quarter are now expected to average 
$253 (up $12.00 from last month); steers in the third quarter are expected to 
average $252 (up $10.00 from last month); and steers in the fourth quarter are 
expected to average $255 (up $10.00 from last month). Beef imports increased by 
319 million pounds and beef exports fell by four million pounds from last 
month's projections.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.67 ($391.89) and select up $2.82 
($394.31) with a movement of 48 loads (37.34 loads of choice, 5.15 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 5.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour 
as the market is skeptical of what headline could pop up next. May feeders are 
down $1.42 at $366.97, August feeders are down $2.72 at $359.67 and September 
feeders are down $3.12 at $357.02. Until the live cattle contracts show more 
confidence, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to trade lower.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog contracts are trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour as well as 
the market simply isn't seeing the stable support it needs. Before traders will 
confidently push the contracts higher, they're going to need to see more 
support from consumers. June lean hogs are down $1.30 at $98.92, July lean hogs 
are down $1.40 at $103.25 and August lean hogs are down $1.42 at $104.27. The 
projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/11/2026 is up $0.06 at $90.48, and the 
actual index for 5/8/2026 is down $0.38 at $90.41. Hog prices on the Daily 
Direct Morning Hog Report average $94.93, ranging from $91.00 to $96.00 on 
3,516 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.85. Pork cutouts total 209.81 
loads with 187.24 loads of pork cuts and 22.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: down $0.78, $96.20.

   Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 
2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as production 
in the second half of the year is expected to be greater than what the industry 
has currently seen. The quarterly price projection for hogs was mixed as hogs 
in the second quarter of 2026 are now expected to average $71 (down $1.00 from 
last month); hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $74 (down 
$1.00 from last month); and hogs in the fourth quarter are now anticipated to 
average $64 (down $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 fell by 12 
million pounds but pork exports grew by 32 million pounds.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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